First off, I want to give a simple explanation of the general rule when it comes to lefty/righty matchups in baseball. If you already understand this, just skip this part.
I think about it this way: If the pitcher and the batter are both left-handed or both right-handed, that typically gives the advantage to the pitcher. This is why switch-hitters can be so valuable.
If the pitcher and batter are opposite (I.E. a LHP vs a right-handed batter), the advantage goes to the hitter.
Obviously, some players don't follow these rules and hit well against anyone and other players are an exception to this rule (Michael Brantley, for example) in which they hit better against a pitcher who is throwing from the same side they are hitting as. But, if you're wondering why Boone Logan (Indians LHP) is coming in the game to face one or two batters, it's probably because Francona knows there are left-handed hitters coming up and bringing Logan in can give the Tribe a better chance of getting favorable outcomes.
The return of Kip
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| Jason Kipnis |
Kipnis was injured during spring training and started the season on the 10-day disabled list. Since then, he started his rehab stint with Double-AA affiliate Akron April 9, playing in three games since. Last night, Kipnis was with Triple-AAA Columbus, going 0-for-3 from the plate. During his rehab assignment, Kipnis has been 1-for-9 with four strikeouts. According to information released by the Indians, Kipnis is to play in the minor leagues today, take off Monday and play another game Tuesday before being re-evaluated. If there are no setbacks, Kipnis could rejoin the major league roster next week.
Lonnie Chisenhall also started the season on the 10-day DL, but made his season debut in the bigs on Thursday and is off to a nice start at the plate. Chisenhall is 5-for-11 (.455 AVG) and already has two home runs this season.
My lineup
First off, this is a very difficult decision that has to be made by Terry Francona. No matter what happens, someone who has typically hit in the top of the lineup is going to have to be bumped down.
v.s. LHP
1B Carlos Santana
SS Francisco Lindor
LF Michael Brantley
DH Edwin Encarnacion
2B Jason Kipnis
3B Jose Ramirez
RF Brandon Guyer
CF Abraham Almonte
C Yan Gomes/Roberto Perez
Notes: When Jose Ramirez bats sixth in any lineup, you know that you are dealing with good problems and you know you have good bats in the lineup. This took me a long time, but after taking a look at last year's splits against left-handed and right-handed pitchers and career splits, I decided to go with Santana leading off against lefties. I like to think of Santana as two different batters because of the way he has hit against lefties and against righties in the past. In his career against left-handers, Santana is a great contact hitter who has a higher batting average and on-base percentage (.276 and .382). Against right-handed pitching, Santana has 118 of his career 153 HR, but his average and on-base percentage fall to .233 and .356. You will later see that Santana moves down the lineup against righties. It was hard to decide who to bump out of the top three, but I chose Kipnis against LHP because his career splits against lefties aren't as good as against right-handers. He also has enough home-run pop to provide protection behind Encarnacion.
v.s. RHP
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Francisco Lindor
LF Michael Brantley
DH Edwin Encarnacion
1B Carlos Santana
3B Jose Ramirez
RF Lonnie Chisenhall
CF Austin Jackson
C Yan Gomes/Roberto Perez
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| Carlos Santana |
He is a better contact hitter and gets on base more when facing right-handed pitcher (which is typical for a left-handed hitter). I like Santana in the five spot to provide protection for Encarnacion. As previously mentioned, Santana has more pop against righties, hitting 77 percent of his home runs coming against them. Kipnis and Santana are above-average bats against both lefties and righties, but by swapping Kipnis and Santana in the v.s. LHP and the v.s. RHP lineups, you can optimize what they bring to the table. Doing it this way is similar to what Francona did last year, but instead of Kipnis leading off against righties, it was Rajai Davis leading off against lefties.
Other considerations:
- Kipnis has had more success as a top-of-the-order hitter, while Brantley has had success in several places.
Kipnis when hitting 4th-9th in the order: .241 average and .298 on-base percentage.
Brantley when batting 5th in the order: .284 average and .338 on-base percentage.
This may be something that Francona thinks about since Kipnis seems to prefer hitting closer to the top of the order while Brantley has shown comfortability outside of the top few spots.
- Santana, Kipnis and Lindor in the top three spots led one of the best offenses in baseball just one year ago, Francona could return to that lineup.
- The Indians have not gotten very much production out of the bottom two or three spots in the lineup this year, is there a chance one of the more established sticks could be moved down there?
- Ramirez is one of the best hitters on the team so far this year and during last season, is it a bad move slotting him at six?
- Francona historically avoids having two batters from the same side consecutively in the lineup. Luckily, Santana, Ramirez and Lindor all are switch hitters, so this gives Francona versatility and more options.
- Although Yandy Diaz has shown flashes at the plate, he likely will be sent to the minors after Kipnis' return so he can get everyday at-bats and experience. Michael Martinez will stay with the club because he can play more positions and plays at a higher level defensively.
It is very difficult to get a read on what Francona might be thinking, but as mentioned before, these issues are good problems to have. One thing is for sure, with the return of a healthy Kipnis to the lineup, the Tribe offense, which has sputtered at times this year, should improve.
What do you think the Tribe lineup will look like when the team is healthy? Leave it in the comments!
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