What in the world is wrong with Yan Gomes?

Before I delve too far into this analysis, I want to make sure people understand that Gomes' early-season struggles do not statistically represent a large enough sample size to make any overarching evaluations of him. He easily could still have a good season at the plate, but I think we should start to look at some of the advanced stats and try to come up with some trends on why his production has decreased in the past couple seasons.

Although batting average isn't the best stat to evaluate a hitter, let's start with the basics. I mentioned in this week's series preview that his first two seasons with the Indians, Gomes hit .294 and .278 with 11 and 21 HR.

Since then, Gomes hit .231 and .167 in limited action in 2015 and 2016. Some of the regression is likely due to some of the injuries Gomes has dealt with. In the first full week of the season, this year, Gomes is batting a mere .056 and people are beginning to worry. Let's take a deeper look.


BABIP
The first advanced stat I would like to examine is Gomes' Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). The stat is described by FanGraphs as a stat that measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit. A ball is “in play” when the plate appearance ends in something other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher’s interference, sacrifice bunt, or home run. Typically around 30% of all balls in play fall for hits, but there are several variables that can affect BABIP rates for individual players, such as defense, luck, and talent level.

As previously stated, the league average BABIP for most seasons is about .300. Here is a list of what Yan Gomes has posted in his career with Cleveland.

Season	BABIP
2013	0.342
2014	0.326
2015	0.285
2016	0.189
2017	0.071

Gomes had better luck on balls he put in play in 2013 and 2014 before having a slightly below average year in 2015. In 2016, Gomes had a very below average season on his average on balls put in play. This correlated with the worst hitting season of his career. The question to ask is why? Did he get particularly unlucky that season? Did he run into better defenses? Did his talent level degrade? Was the regression caused by an injury? It's difficult to say, so let's take a look at Gomes' batted ball profiles throughout his career. 

Batted-Ball Profiles

I have often heard people say that Gomes gets solid contact frequently, but he seems to hit the ball right to a defender most of the time.

Season	Line Drive	Grounder	Fly Ball	Pull	Cntr	Oppo	Soft	Medium	Hard
2013	17.80%	43.50%	38.70%	42.20%	31.70%	26.10%	14.30%	53.50%	32.20%
2014	24.00%	36.70%	39.40%	42.60%	30.20%	27.20%	16.40%	52.60%	31.00%
2015	26.40%	33.60%	40.00%	37.40%	37.00%	25.70%	16.60%	55.50%	27.90%
2016	16.30%	38.60%	45.10%	42.40%	34.20%	23.40%	17.40%	55.40%	27.20%
2017	14.30%	50.00%	35.70%	42.90%	35.70%	21.40%	21.40%	35.70%	42.90%

Again, the sample size is very small for 2017, so let's not look too much into that for now. Conventional wisdom says the optimal batted-ball profile comes from a hard hit ball or a line drive. According to FanGraphs, the quality of contact doesn’t perfectly correlate with success on the field, but in general, hitting the ball hard is better than the alternative. FanGraphs also states tThere is no ideal batted ball distribution, but batters who hit a lot of line drives typically perform better than hitters who hit lots of fly balls or ground balls. Generally speaking, line drives go for hits most often, ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls, and fly balls are more productive than ground balls when they do go for hits (i.e. extra base hits). Additionally, infield fly balls are essentially strikeouts and almost never result in hits or runner advancement. In 2014, line drives went for hits 68.5 percent of the time while ground balls went for hits 23.9 percent of the time and fly balls went for hits 20.7 percent of the time. 

A cause for concern, Gomes has seen a steady decline in his percentage of hard-hit balls throughout his career. In 2015, his hard-contact percentage dropped nearly five percent from his career-best 2013 season. You can also observe a steady increase in the amount of softly-hit balls. 

Gomes' line-drive percentage hit a career-low in 2016 and that correlated with a career-low .167 batting average. 

Gomes has hit fewer line drives in the past two seasons and he has made less hard contact, but some of that could be attributed to injuries. 

Swing Percentage

Season	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%
2013	33.50%	66.40%	48.70%
2014	36.50%	66.60%	50.10%
2015	37.40%	70.00%	52.20%
2016	38.00%	75.80%	57.00%
2017	40.00%	73.80%	55.40%

There is one more troubling trend I would like to note, but before I do that, I'll explain the chart above. O-Swing% is the percentage of pitches out of the strike zone the batter swings at. Z-Swing% is the percentage of pitches in the strike zone the batter swings at. Swing% is the rate that hitters swing at any pitch. The troubling trend for Gomes is that he has seen a steady increase in swing percentage. Gomes has been significantly less patient as his career has moved forward, peaking when he offered at 38 percent of pitches out of the strike zone last year. 

Likely correlated with a higher swing rate is Gomes' strikeout percentage, which was a career-high 26.7 percent in 2015 and 26 percent in 2016. Even in his career-best season (2013), his strikeout rate was 20.8 percent.

Final Analysis

In a very small sample size for 2017, the good news is that nearly 43 percent of Gomes' batted balls have been hard contact. It confirms the eye test of many that he seems to be getting unlucky. If he starts hitting more line drives and gets a little more luck to go his way, Gomes could still have a productive season at the plate. Although many see the struggles Gomes is having in the early parts of this season, I would say not to give up on his bat yet. 

He may never be the same batter he was in 2013, but the Indians already potent offense doesn't need that from him. He's a plus defender behind the plate and if he can split the difference between 2014 and 2015, hitting a respectable .250 with 15 HR, he will be pulling his weight. 

I believe Gomes may be on the cusp of getting some luck to go his way for once (law of averages, right?), let's just hope he can stay healthy. One guarantee is that Gomes' BABIP is very unlikely to stay as low as it has. If Gomes can work to be more patient at the plate and cuts down on strikeouts, it's very likely he's going to start finding some better luck and a higher batting average.